Pandemics Don’t Ruin Economies - Panic Does
by Samuel McCaulley
VOL. 10 — published July 12, 2020 under Economy
This March, we have seen an economic recession paralleling the Great Recession, with an over 30% drop in the Dow Jones Index, a measure of the economic confidence of the top thirty companies. This economic shock has been thought to be spurred by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic that has been ravaging America, and, by consequence, the rest of the financial world. However, the stock market shows a different story. Multiple stock performance aggregates such as NYSE500 and the Dow Jones Index made up most of their losses from March, with stock index NASDAQ hitting record highs. Despite the COVID-19 pandemic’s presence throughout the American news cycle, as well as the American psyche, it seems as if the economic turmoil brought about by the COVID-19 has started to pass.
Just this past Thursday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an unemployment rate of 11.1%, two percent below the previous month’s report on the unemployment rate. An estimated 4.8 million jobs were reintroduced into the labor market this past month, signifying an important turn in the course of this catastrophic outbreak. How has the perception of this virus changed in the way that investors are starting to view the global economy with confidence?
Keep in mind that the virus is more deadly than ever. States like Texas with a hasty reopening plan are feeling a retaliation from COVID-19, with a record number of daily infections. These reopening plans, keep in mind, are definitely being expressed in the stock market. In April and May, optimistic theories regarding reopening plans shot the Dow Jones Index to 27,500. However, the harsh reality of a slow, pessimistic, and careful opening seemed to signal a weakness in the economy, causing a 2,500 point drop. So, if the virus itself isn’t causing these massive changes in economic confidence, what is?
The answer to that might be the novelty of the virus. In January, the threat of a virus coming from faraway lands to threaten the status quo seemed like a fantasy tale, like that of the Spanish Flu. However, now that it has been over six months since the virus has first been identified, perhaps the American people have simply gotten used to the virus around every corner of the media, in businesses, in our behavior, in our schools, and in our homes. Perhaps instead of looking for the old normal, we are trying to make a new normal. As the virus continues to age in the media and in our public consciousness, we stop seeing the virus as a zombie outbreak but more as an inconvenience with which we learn how to deal with- wear masks, socially distance, and cancel concerts.
The simple fact of the matter is that the economic strength of a country, or even the globe, runs on confidence, which is inverse to panic. With the virus more present than ever, it would be logical to assume that we should be panicking right now, but we’re seeing the opposite. Instead of looking for the old normal, people are adapting to the new normal, and this is what we see in the economy as we speak, as tech giants attain higher market capitalizations than ever seen before. Perhaps it’s not the virus that controls the economy, but how we feel about the virus.